 Estimates Show Close Race for National Vote – SHAMS Calls for Calm while IHEC Tabulates Official Results
As part of its comprehensive effort to observe the Iraqi parliamentary elections 2010 7th March, SHAMS Network conducted a Sampled based observation (SBO) project as a new method to observe the election process in Iraq. Based on results from 2,518 trained and accredited observers deployed at polling stations throughout the country, SHAMS believes that overall, election day was conducted in a free and fair manor. While SHAMS observers reported some irregularities, these could not have significantly affected the outcome. Election results reported by observers on the night of the elections provide an overview of the national vote totals. These statistically-based reports show Iraqia and State of Law are engaged in a race too close to call. SHAMS calls for calm while IHEC tabulates official results.
Sample based observation is an advanced election observation technique used by domestic observer groups to observe the Election process during E-Day and to verify the official results. As part of the SBO exercise, SHAMS Network deployed 2,518 trained and accredited observers to a representative sample of polling stations which were identified scientifically according to religion and ethnic group’s distribution of Iraqi citizens to all 19 governorates based on the IHEC structure in Iraq.
In the mean while, using the SBO project enabled SHAMS to estimate the national results for selected parties inside Iraq during E–Day. This does not cover the special voting day and voting out of the country at 16 countries in Europe, the USA, medial east and North Africa.
It is worth to mention that while State of Law (337) has a higher percentage than Iraqiya (333) – 24.56 percent compared to 20.64 percent – these are not statistically different due to the margin of error. It is not possible to definitively determine which party received the highest percentage of the national vote. It is vital to remember that the allocation of parliamentary seats is done on a governorate basis. Thus, a party could receive the largest percentage of the national vote, but not secure the largest number of seats in the Parliament
SHAMS regards the wide participation of Iraqi citizens, 62% across the country, a step towards fulfilling the political rights of Iraqi societies in forming the new Iraqi political scheme and insure the continuity of developing the democratic process in Iraq. While turn-out ratios differed from province to province, most of the ethnic, national and religions groups participated in the voting process. SHAMS Network is releasing these estimates to ensure transparency and accountability in the process as well as to promote calm in the country. SHAMS calls on all political contestants and their supporters to remain peaceful while the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) tabulates the final official results
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